About

The Forecasting AI Progress Tournament is now closed. Thank you to all who've contributed their analyses and forecasts on this project. The Metaculus Team will reach out to contest winners to arrange disbursement of prizes.

Contest Rankings

AI Progress Essay Contest Results

This large-scale, comprehensive forecasting tournament is dedicated to predicting advances in artificial intelligence. Our aim is to generate a massive dataset of artificial intelligence forecasts over a range of time-frames, train models to optimally aggregate those forecasts, and use these to build a highly accurate map of the future of AI.

Participants will be contributing to the development of important new insights about the future of AI. Our results will be made publicly available.

Prizes

$50K in prizes will be awarded across three rounds of forecast questions that elucidate the short, medium, and long-term future of AI, as well as a fortified essay contest eliciting rigorous analyses of the future of AI. Each of the following prizes will each be awarded to the top 5 participants in that category:

The Maximum Likelihood Prize, with $7K in payouts: 30 short-term questions on the status of AI benchmarks and other indicators
The Hill Climbing Prize, with $9K in payouts: approximately 30 medium-term questions
The Deep Learning Prize, with $7.5K in payouts: approximately 30 long-term questions
The Bayes Prize, with $20K in payouts: the top five forecasters across all three question rounds
The Dreyfus Prize, with $6.5K in payouts: the top five most insightful analyses submitted for the AI Progress Essay Contest

Winners of these prizes will need to demonstrate excellent foresight on a wide range of issues on AI operating on many time-horizons. Click here for more information on the allocation of prizes and for full tournament rules.

Advisory Board

Amanda Askell — OpenAI

Research Scientist on the policy team at OpenAI, where she’s worked on topics including responsible AI development, safety via debate, and publication norms in ML.

Joscha Bach — AI Foundation

Cognitive scientist and the VP of Research at the AI Foundation. Previously, AI researcher at MIT Media Lab and the Harvard Program for Evolutionary Dynamics.

Miles Brundage — OpenAI

Research Scientist on the Policy team at OpenAI and Research Affiliate at the University of Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute.

Owain Evans — Future of Humanity Institute

Research Scientist working on AI Safety at the Future of Humanity Institute, and member of the Board of Directors of Ought.

Saurabh Mishra — Stanford University

Manager of the AI Index Program at Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI).

Carroll ‘Max’ Wainwright — OpenAI

Research Scientist focused on technical aspects of AI safety, and Co-founder of Metaculus.

Read the full tournament terms and conditions here

This leaderboard is for informational purposes only. The Forecasting AI Progress winners and prize payouts were determined according to a legacy contest leaderboard which can be found here.

Forecasting AI Progress

Questions