With Republicans in control of the White House and Congress, 2025 is shaping up to be a defining year for US fiscal policy. At the center is a reconciliation bill—letting major tax and spending changes pass with a simple Senate majority.

Fiscal Showdown 2025 invites you to weigh in on what the final bill will include:

Will Inflation Reduction Act tax credits (like 45Y, 48E, 45X) be repealed or reshaped?
Will domestic content rules become mandatory?
How will it affect Medicaid, the deficit, and US industrial policy?
What procedural moves—like baseline choices or Parliamentarian rulings—will shape the outcome?

Your forecasts reveal key areas of uncertainty, define the range of plausible outcomes, and offer early insights to policymakers, analysts, and the public throughout the legislative process.

Track the legislative fight. Forecast the future of the Inflation Reduction Act.

Tournament Timeline

All questions except one will be finalized by late 2025. The exceptional question on long-term care facility staffing requirements will be resolved in 2027 and won't affect scoring or prizes. This scheduling allows us to complete the tournament and distribute awards in early 2026.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Fiscal Showdown 2025

Questions