Forecasting the future of the US workforce as AI advances

How will advances in AI reshape the future of work, and how quickly will those changes arrive? The answers will affect workers, businesses, educators, and policymakers alike. This tournament is designed to produce the clearest possible picture of what's coming.

Aggregate forecasts from this tournament are reported on the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub, a dashboard for tracking community predictions and the latest developments in AI.

The Labor Automation Tournament is a Metaculus tournament in collaboration with Renaissance Philanthropy and Schultz Family Foundation.

Tournament Structure

The tournament launches with 93 questions with potentially more added over time. Use the ‘Follow’ button to be notified when new questions are added.

The $35,000 prize is split into three prize pools:

A Near-Term Forecasting Prize ($10,000) for questions that close by the end of 2030, awarded in 2031 based on time-averaged scores. Individual question scores are based on accuracy relative to other forecasters and how long your predictions have been active. Your tournament score is the sum of your individual question scores. To maximize it, forecast early and across a range of questions. More details in our FAQ.

A Long-Term Forecasting Prize ($20,000) for questions that resolve after 2031, awarded in 2036 based on time-averaged scores.

A Commenting Prize ($5,000) for comments posted before September 1, 2026, distributed across the top eight contributors based on quality and quantity and awarded by November 2026. You can rank highly by posting many strong comments or a smaller number of exceptional comments. Further, you don't need to be right to win: Arguments will be evaluated on the strength of their reasoning.

Strong comments:

Showcase clear and insightful reasoning
Provide valuable information
Challenge other forecasters' predictions or assumptions
Earn recognition through upvotes, "Changed My Mind" votes, or key factor ratings.

Commenting prize distribution:

1st: $1,200
2nd: $1,000
3rd: $800
4th: $600
5th: $500
6th: $400
7th: $300
8th: $200

Five Metaculus Pro Forecasters are participating and will share their predictions and rationales with the community: Adonis da Silva (Adonis), Nathan Metzger (Haiku), Patrick Molgaard (draaglom), Yann Riviere (exmateriae), and Ľuboš Saloky (lubossaloky). Jared Leibowich (jleibowich) also contributed predictions as a Pro Forecaster on some questions. These forecasters are not eligible for the Forecasting or Commenting prizes.

Resources

Below are a few resources that might be helpful as you consider your forecasts:

A spreadsheet organizing all the questions in the tournament and their relationship to the hub page, to help you navigate the forecasting questions.
A tool containing overall and occupation-specific employment/wage data for the occupations covered in this tournament, along with some basic percentage change calculation functionality: Metaculus Employment Forecasting Tool
A tool showing measures of uncertainty and disagreement for each of the questions, as well as other statistics: Labor Hub Forecast Statistics Dashboard

By participating in this competition you agree to abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus. Bots are not eligible for prizes.

Ready to start? Forecast on the questions below.

Feedback? Questions? Message us or leave a comment on our forum post.