The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.

In Q2, Metaculus forecasters correctly picked the higher-returning asset in all head-to-head stock return questions, kept volatility forecasts well-calibrated, and accurately estimated company revenues and earnings per share. Join us in Q3, to turn financial intuition into reliable predictions, contribute to an actionable record of market forecasts, and see if Q2's edge will hold.

Tournament Details

This tournament features a $7,500 prize pool for accurate forecasts. All questions will resolve on or before October 11, and winners will be announced shortly thereafter. This tournament will be scored using our usual time-averaged Peer scores. Learn more about forecast scoring.

There will be 12 question groups launched in this tournament, each containing a number of subquestions, for a total of 70 questions in the tournament. New questions and subquestions will launch periodically during the tournament, so make sure to click the ‘Follow’ button to get notified when a new question launches.

The first wave with 10 questions is open now. Find the launch schedule for the rest of the questions below:

Launch date	Number of questions
July 11	8
July 18	8
July 23	7
August 1	8
August 8	5
August 15	8
August 29	8
September 12	8

Bot Participation Rules

You are welcome to enter this tournament and compete for prizes using a forecasting bot account, but you can only enter the competition once, either as a bot or as a normal user. Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark contest page for templates and support building your bot. The ID for this tournament is 32773 (or "market-pulse-25q3").

See if you can demonstrate repeatable accuracy on decision-relevant data by getting started below.

Find the winners announcement and learn how the Metaculus community performed in Q2 here.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Questions