The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that clearly tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights directly into financial decision-making.

Join us in Q4, to turn financial intuition into reliable predictions and contribute to an actionable record of market forecasts.

Tournament Details

This tournament features a $7,500 prize pool for accurate forecasts. All questions will resolve on or before January 3, 2026, and winners will be announced shortly thereafter. This tournament will be scored using our usual time-averaged Peer scores. Learn more about forecast scoring.

There will be 12 question groups launched in this tournament, each containing a number of subquestions, for a total of 69 questions in the tournament. New questions and subquestions will launch periodically during the tournament, so make sure to click the ‘Follow’ button to get notified when a new question launches.

Find the launch schedule for the tournament questions below:

Launch date	Number of questions
September 26	8
October 3	10
October 10	8
October 17	6
October 24	8
October 31	5
November 7	8
November 21	8
December 5	8

Bot Participation Rules

You are welcome to enter this tournament and compete for prizes using a forecasting bot account, but you can only enter the competition once, either as a bot or as a normal user. Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark contest page for templates and support building your bot. The ID for this tournament is 32831 (or "market-pulse-25q4").

See if you can demonstrate repeatable accuracy on decision-relevant data by getting started below.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Market Pulse Challenge 25Q4

Questions