The Market Pulse Challenge is a 3-month tournament inviting forecasters to predict market trends and company performance, testing their skills against measurable real-world outcomes. By focusing on rolling questions, the tournament aims to build a structured, consistent dataset that tracks forecasting accuracy over time. This dataset will serve as a valuable resource, connecting forecasting insights with financial decision-making.

Join us in Q4 2026, to turn financial intuition into reliable predictions, contribute to an actionable record of market forecasts... and potentially win a prize.

Spot Scoring

This tournament uses spot scoring, meaning that only predictions at the close time of each question count for tournament standings. See more details below.

Tournament Details

This tournament features a $7,500 prize pool for accurate forecasts. All questions will resolve on or before December 31, 2026, and winners will be announced shortly thereafter.

Tournament scores will consist of the sum of the spot scores of individual questions. Spot scores evaluates a forecaster's prediction only at a single point in time. In this tournament, each question has a different spot scoring time, depending on its closing time. Therefore, only your predictions standing at the close time of each question matter. If a question is resolved earlier than its scheduled close time, the spot scoring time will be the last moment before resolution.

There will be 12 question groups launched in this tournament, each containing a number of subquestions, for a total of 65 questions in the tournament. New questions and subquestions will open periodically during the tournament, so make sure to click the ‘Follow’ button to get notified when a new question launches.

Bot Participation Rules

You are welcome to enter this tournament and compete for prizes using a forecasting bot account, but you can only enter the competition once, either as a bot or as a normal user. Create a bot account here, and visit the AI Benchmark resource page for templates and support building your bot. The ID for this tournament is "market-pulse-26q4".

See if you can demonstrate repeatable accuracy on decision-relevant data by getting started below.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Market Pulse Challenge 26Q4

Questions