Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Join us and make quick predictions on topical questions and compete for a $5,000 prize pool. Each week, a few new questions will be available to forecast on. We welcome both new and experienced forecasters to participate. Beginners can learn how Metaculus works while veterans can showcase their expertise. Feel free to try your hand at question writing too!

Each Friday, at 17:00 UTC, an average of 4 questions will be set to Upcoming, opening three days later, so that forecasters can prepare and give feedback. Breaking news might result in additional questions being launched during the week. Questions will frequently close early, but some might remain open for the whole duration of the tournament.

Prize Structure

This tournament features a $5,000 prize divided into two distinct prize pools:

A Forecasting Prize ($2,500) that will be based on our usual time-averaged scores. (Learn more about forecast scoring here.)

A Commenting Prize ($2,500) that will be distributed to the top 8 contributors to Metaculus Cup questions before the end of the tournament. Contributors will be evaluated based on both the quality and the quantity of their comments, meaning that both frequent useful comments and fewer exceptional ones can yield high overall contributor rankings. Contributors will be ranked on how well their comments:

Showcase clear and insightful reasoning.
Provide timely news updates or generally valuable information.
Challenge the community's prediction or assumptions by other forecasters.
Are received by the community, as indicated by upvotes, "Changed My Mind" votes, or the comment key factors being rated as significant.

Comments do not need to make a forecast that turns out to be accurate. Even if a comment argues for a forecast that ends up directionally incorrect we will evaluate it based primarily on the strength of its reasoning.

Prizes will be distributed as follows

1st: $600
2nd: $500
3rd: $400
4th: $300
5th: $250
6th: $200
7th: $150
8th: $100

Get started below!

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Questions