Welcome to the Metaculus Cup. Each week, forecasters new and experienced predict on a fresh batch of topical questions, with $5,000 in prizes on the line. This season the Metaculus community goes head-to-head against guest forecaster Kiko Llaneras. If the Community Prediction beats him by season's end, the prize pool grows by an additional $2,500.

About Kiko Llaneras

I'm Kiko Llaneras, an author and data journalist at EL PAÍS, where I analyze, explain, and predict many things, from elections to the World Cup to the pandemic. I'm the author of Think Clearly, a bestseller in Spain translated into English, Chinese and more. I've worked with Metaculus before, on predicting elections around the world and on a Spanish-language tournament. This time I'm competing against the community in the Metaculus Cup, and I'll put a number on it: I give myself about a 10% chance of winning.

Prize Structure

Forecasting Prize ($2,500, or $5,000 if the community beats Llaneras)

Awarded based on time-averaged scores. If the Community Prediction outranks Llaneras at the end of the tournament, the forecasting prize doubles to $5,000.

Commenting Prize ($2,500)

Distributed to the top 8 contributors based on the quality and quantity of their comments. Rankings reward both consistent useful commenting and a smaller number of standout contributions. You don't need to be right to win: comments arguing for forecasts that are ultimately inaccurate will still be evaluated on the strength of the reasoning.

Strong comments:

Show clear, insightful reasoning
Provide timely news updates or useful information
Challenge the community's predictions or other forecasters' assumptions
Earn recognition through upvotes, "Changed My Mind" votes, or key factor ratings

Commenting Prize distribution:

1st: $600
2nd: $500
3rd: $400
4th: $300
5th: $250
6th: $200
7th: $150
8th: $100

Schedule

The first batch of questions open Monday, September 7th, but you can forecast as early as September 4th, when the first set of questions are published and set to Upcoming. If you forecast during the Upcoming period, your forecast will be live and will begin to count for scoring purposes the moment the question opens.

Each Friday at 17:00 UTC, 4–5 questions will be set to Upcoming and will open the following Monday. Breaking news may bring additional questions during the week. Many questions close early; some stay open for the full tournament.

Contribute your own question ideas to the Cup using the +Question button right below.

Browse the questions below to start forecasting. Use the Prediction Flow at the top of the page to work through all questions and keep your forecasts current.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Metaculus Cup Fall 2026

Questions