Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while competing for $5,000 in prizes. New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young, a seasoned forecaster and one of the field's most vocal advocates. Beat Nathan and an additional $2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.

About Nathan Young

Nathan Young is the Director of Goodheart Labs, where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.

Prize Structure

Forecasting Prize ($2,500, or $5,000 if the community beats Nathan)

Awarded based on time-averaged scores. If the Community Prediction outranks NathanpmYoung at the end of the tournament, the forecasting prize doubles to $5,000.

Commenting Prize ($2,500)

Distributed to the top 8 contributors based on both quality and quantity of comments, meaning that both frequent useful comments and fewer exceptional ones can yield high overall contributor rankings. You don't need to be right to win: Even comments arguing for forecasts that turn out to be wrong will be evaluated on the strength of their reasoning.

Strong comments:

Showcase clear and insightful reasoning
Provide timely news updates or valuable information
Challenge the community's predictions or assumptions by other forecasters
Receive recognition from the community through upvotes, "Changed My Mind" votes, or key factor ratings.

Commenting Prize distribution

1st: $600
2nd: $500
3rd: $400
4th: $300
5th: $250
6th: $200
7th: $150
8th: $100

Schedule

Each Monday at 17:00 UTC, 3–4 questions will be set to Upcoming and open two days later on Wednesday. Breaking news may result in additional questions during the week. Questions will frequently close early, though some may remain open for the full tournament.

Have an idea for a forecasting question we should include? Use the +Question button right below.

Browse the open questions below to start forecasting. Use the Prediction Flow at the top of the page to work through all questions and keep your forecasts up to date.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

Metaculus Cup Spring 2026

Questions