Update 11.11.21: Round 3 of the Nuclear Risk Tournament has started, with new questions staggered to open each week: November 11th, 18th, and 25th.
Round 3 makes use of the newly revised tournament scoring system, with forecasters initially unable to view the community prediction. Importantly, forecasts during this hidden period determine a user's "coverage" and therefore a user's tournament ranking, so forecasting early is key. Feedback is welcome via this discussion post.
How likely is nuclear conflict in the coming years? How likely are outcomes so extreme that they may lead to existential catastrophe? What actions would most effectively reduce these risks and increase our chances of reaching a flourishing future?
These and other related questions are complex and time-sensitive, and have direct implications for important funding, policy, research, and career decisions. This tournament is part of Rethink Priorities’ work to inform those decisions - forecasts, comments, and essays produced for this tournament will inform and in some cases be featured within Rethink Priorities’ other research, and some will be packaged for and directly shared with some key decision-makers.
Since its original launch, this overall initiative has been split into three components and Rethink Priorities has generously increased the total prize money.
The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below.
The Nuclear Risk Horizons Project: This contains all of the longer-range questions, mostly resolving by 2030, 2035, or 2050. Previously launched long-term questions are now part of this project.
The Szilard Prize: This is a fortified essay competition. Forecasters will compete to write essays that incorporate at least 3 forecasts from the Nuclear Risk Horizons Project. This is intended to leverage and demonstrate forecasters’ knowledge and intellectual labour in ways forecasting questions themselves don’t, including via drawing connections between forecasts and relevant mechanisms, recommendations, and reasoning. Essays will be judged by a panel of experts. The competition is scheduled to open in mid-November 2021 and to close in early December 2021 with a prize pool of $1,000.
Thank you to everyone who has participated so far! There is still time to participate in all of the above projects.