How likely is nuclear conflict in the coming years? How likely are outcomes so extreme that they may lead to existential catastrophe? What actions would most effectively reduce these risks and increase our chances of reaching a flourishing future?
These and other related questions are complex and time-sensitive, and have direct implications for important funding, policy, research, and career decisions. This tournament is part of Rethink Priorities’ work to inform those decisions - forecasts, comments, and essays produced for this tournament will inform and in some cases be featured within Rethink Priorities’ other research, and some will be packaged for and directly shared with some key decision-makers.
The tournament will feature three types of questions:
Calibration Questions: these close before the end date of the tournament (December 31, 2023), and are used to rank forecasting performance in the tournament.
Long-term Questions: in order to probe far into the future and inform longer-range planning, we are including a number of far-reaching questions that may not resolve for many years.
Fortified Essays: these questions challenge you to explain your predictions, and will frequently be connected to long-term questions within the tournament.
We appreciate your forecasts and contributions to this tournament.