Welcome!

Make your predictions, learn more about what's next for the City of Pensacola, and help support your community! $5,000 prize pool.

Scroll down to learn about the contest. Click the below toggle sections to expand them and read more. Or, get right to the predicting by scrolling down and clicking on the questions! We've also created a quick forecasting tutorial to get you up and running. Simply click your username at the top of the page, then select 'Tutorial' from the dropdown menu.

📌 Tip: Bookmark this tournament page so you can easily return to make new forecasts, check results, and track your standing!

What's this all about?
We're asking residents to predict when city projects will be completed. Your forecasts help city planners understand what the community expects, while you compete for $5,000 in prizes. It's a fun way to stay informed about local projects and help shape our city's future!

First time forecasting? No problem: I've included everything you need to know here. This contest is designed for beginners, and I'll guide you through every step.

About This Contest

This contest was created by Christian Williams, who serves as Communications Director at Metaculus, in collaboration with City of Pensacola staff as a way to strengthen community engagement and support data-driven decision making.

The questions in this contest are drawn from City plans and other public documents, ensuring that your forecasts address real projects that will shape our community's future.

Why Forecasting Matters for Pensacola

Forecasting isn't just about predicting the future—it's about thinking carefully about what's extremely unlikely, somewhat likely, or all but certain to happen. When you make a forecast, you're encouraged to:

Gather relevant information and consider multiple perspectives
Think about different levels of certainty rather than just yes-or-no answers
Change your mind as new information becomes available
Learn from outcomes to improve future judgment

How Metaculus Forecasting Works

Think of forecasting like being a weather forecaster, but for city projects! You'll answer questions about when projects will be completed or whether certain goals will be met by giving a percentage that represents how likely you think it is.

Making Your First Prediction

For each question, you'll see a slider or input box where you can enter a percentage between 0% and 100%:

0% = "I'm certain this won't happen"
25% = "Probably not, but there's a chance"
50% = "Could go either way—like a coin flip"
75% = "Pretty likely, but not guaranteed"
100% = "I'm certain this will happen"

Getting Started

Signup is free and takes just a moment! Click the Sign Up button at the top of the page. A quick tutorial will walk you through the platform. Then you can either:

Use the Prediction Flow button at the top to systematically go through all 33 questions
Or scroll down to browse the questions and start with ones that interest you most

Remember: There's no "perfect" forecast—just give your honest assessment based on what you know!

Prize Money & Eligibility

    Prize Pool: $5,000

    No purchase necessary! This prize money is provided by Metaculus as part of a civic technology pilot project to explore how forecasting can help local communities make better decisions.

City of Pensacola Forecasting Contest

Series Contents