What if your predictions could help policymakers make smarter decisions?

Metaculus is an aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. We're partnering with the RAND Forecasting Initiative to forecast on topics like North Korea conducting a nuclear test, a coup d'état in Africa, and Russia's GDP growth.

To help identify talented students who can provide valuable forecasts, we're offering $10,000 in prizes and career opportunities. This is an opportunity to build valuable forecasting skills, build your network, win cash prizes, and more.

Anyone can forecast, but to be eligible for prizes you must currently be a university student, and you must register here.

Click the below toggles for more information.

Competition Overview

RFI and Metaculus both use crowdsourced forecasting to support decision making that serves the public good, and for this competition, no prior forecasting experience is needed.

Compete for $7,000 in accuracy prizes based on how well your predictions match real outcomes, plus $3,000 in commentary prizes for the rationales and thinking behind your forecasts. To provide those rationales, you'll need to comment and provide "Key Factors" (see the Key Factors section below for more details).

Beyond cash prizes, winners get career development perks like a year of being a RAND Pro Forecaster, a spotlight feature on the RFI blog, and special guest attendance at RAND events for networking opportunities. You can start forecasting anytime, but the earlier you start, the better your odds! The competition runs through the end of the year, and winners will be announced in January 2026.

Prizes and Perks

$10,000 Total Prize Pool

$7,000 Accuracy Prizes:

Awarded based on tournament scoring
Distributed to top forecasters based on prediction accuracy
Time-weighted scoring rewards early and consistent participation

$3,000 Commentary Prizes (awarded by comment, not user):

Payouts: Top 15 comments at $200 each (15 × $200 = $3,000)
Per-user cap: Maximum total to any one user is $1,600
Judged by the RAND Forecasting Initiative based on Key Factors and comment quality

Career Development Perks from RFI:

One year of RAND Pro Forecaster status
Spotlight feature on the RFI blog to boost professional exposure
Special guest attendance at RAND events for recognition and networking
Join a community where policymakers turn for crowdsourced insights
Build a track record in policy forecasting for your resume

Key Factors - How to Compete for Commentary Prizes

What are Key Factors?

Key Factors give forecasters a way to indicate what elements will drive the outcome. Will they make something more likely to happen? Will they make something less likely to happen? Key Factors help structure your thinking and communicate the reasoning behind your forecasts.

How to Add Key Factors:

Where to input: Share Key Factors on a forecast question page, either below the resolution criteria section or in the comment section.
Write descriptions: Write a brief description of each factor that drives your forecast.
Add your comment: You'll be prompted to add a comment explaining the factors you've added.
Set direction and impact: Once you've posted your comment with its factors, click on each factor to indicate:
- How does this Key Factor impact the outcome?
- The effect size: Small (S), Medium (M), or Large (L)

Here's an image of Key Factors and the interface for sharing them. Key Factors interface example

How to Participate

Eligibility Requirements:

Be currently enrolled as an undergraduate student (or international equivalent). This includes bachelor's degree programs, associate degrees, and similar tertiary education. Full-time, part-time, exchange, and visiting students are eligible.
Complete the intake form and registration using an institutional email (.edu, .ac.uk, or similar).

One account per person. Unless, that is, your existing Metaculus account doesn't use an institutional/school email, in which case you may create a new account with your institutional email for this tournament.

Steps to Get Started:

Create Account: Sign up on the Metaculus platform if you don't already have an account
Register: Complete the official registration form. It's fine if you registered before creating an account. Just be sure to use the same email address for both. If you already have a Metaculus account that isn't tied to your institutional email, you can create a new account for this competition.
Tutorial: New to Metaculus? Click your username at the top and select "Tutorial" for a quick walkthrough
Start Forecasting: Make predictions on policy-relevant questions
Stay Active: Regular participation improves your score (earlier is better because scores are time-averaged)
Learn & Improve: Use resources and community feedback to refine your forecasting skills

Note: You don't have to forecast on every question. You can join the competition at any time, but the earlier you start forecasting the better your odds. Use the forecast flow at the top to ensure you forecast every question. As new information becomes available, come back and update your predictions based on your updated beliefs.

By participating in this competition, you agree to the competition rules.

Learn About RAND, RFI, and Metaculus

RAND: RAND experts provide policymakers around the world with rigorous, nonpartisan research to help solve the most-consequential policy problems.

RFI: The RAND Forecasting Initiative's goal? Become the world's leading crowdsourced forecast provider on questions that inform government policy. Your predictions can help policymakers peer over the horizon.

Metaculus: Metaculus's mission is to build infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world's most important and complex challenges.

The Forecasting Research Institute has shared a study they're conducting, which also doubles as an exercise that may strengthen your forecasting abilities. This is completely optional and separate from the forecasting competition. It has no impact on this competition's outcomes. You can participate here.

New to crowdsourced forecasting? Here's an introduction for First-Timers.

And if you want to get in more forecasting practice, there's the Metaculus Cup, with $5,000 in prizes.

RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge

Questions