We've announced the winners and will be in touch to arrange prize payouts. Congratulations to the top forecast and key factor contributors!

What if your predictions could help policymakers make smarter decisions?

Metaculus is an aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. We're partnering with the RAND Forecasting Initiative to forecast on topics like North Korea conducting a nuclear test, a coup d'état in Africa, and Russia's GDP growth.

To help identify talented students who can provide valuable forecasts, we're offering $10,000 in prizes and career opportunities. This is an opportunity to build valuable forecasting skills, push your career forward, and win cash prizes.

Anyone can forecast, but to be eligible for prizes you must currently be a university student, and you must register here.

Click the below toggles for more information.

Competition Overview

RFI and Metaculus both use crowdsourced forecasting to support decision making that serves the public good. No previous forecasting experience required.

Make accurate predictions on a variety of topics to compete for $7,000 in prizes, and share your insights on which factors will drive outcomes to compete for another $3,000. (See the Key Factors section below for more details on the commentary prizes.)

Beyond cash prizes, winners receive career development perks like a year of being a RAND Pro Forecaster, a spotlight feature on the RFI blog, and invitations to events with RAND experts for networking opportunities. You can start forecasting anytime, but the earlier you start, the better your odds! The competition runs through the end of the year, and winners will be announced in January 2026.

Prizes and Perks

$10,000 Total Prize Pool

$7,000 Accuracy Prizes:

Awarded based on tournament scoring

$3,000 Commentary Prizes (awarded by comment, not user):

Payouts:Strong comments, backed up by Key Factors, are awarded $200 each.
The per-participant cap is $1,600, i.e., if you make eight excellent comments selected by judges, you'll receive the maximum commentary prize of $1,600.
Comment and Key Factor quality are judged by the RAND Forecasting Initiative
See the Key Factor section for more on how to contribute

Career Development Perks from RFI:

One year of RAND Pro Forecaster status
Spotlight feature on the RFI blog to boost professional exposure
Special guest attendance at RAND events for recognition and networking
Join a community where policymakers turn for crowdsourced insights
Build a track record in policy forecasting for your resume

Key Factors - How to Compete for Commentary Prizes

What are Key Factors?

Key Factors give forecasters a way to indicate what elements will drive the outcome. Will they make something more likely to happen? Will they make something less likely to happen? Key Factors help structure your thinking and communicate the reasoning behind your forecasts.

How to Add Key Factors:

Where to input: Share Key Factors on a forecast question page, either below the resolution criteria section or in the comment section.
Write descriptions: Write a brief description of each factor that drives your forecast.
Add your comment: You'll be prompted to add a comment explaining the factors you've added.
Set direction and impact: Once you've posted your comment with its factors, click on each factor to indicate:
- How does this Key Factor impact the outcome?
- The effect size: Small (S), Medium (M), or Large (L)

Here's an image of Key Factors and the interface for sharing them. Key Factors interface example

How to Participate

Anyone can forecast, appear on the leaderboard, and earn medals on Metaculus. To be eligible for prizes, however, you must currently be enrolled as a student in an undergraduate or equivalent international program. Complete the intake form here. If you already have a non-school Metaculus account, you can complete the registration form and start forecasting from your non-school account. You'll still be eligible for prizes. If you already completed the registration form and haven't yet created your Metaculus account, be sure to use your school email when creating your Metaculus account so we can link them.

Tutorial: New to Metaculus? Click your username at the top and select "Tutorial" for a quick walkthrough.

Note: You don't have to forecast on every single question to be eligible, but you'll increase your chances if you forecast on at least the majority of the questions. Further, you should forecast early and update often as new information comes in.

Use the Prediction Flow at the top of the page to easily predict across all or many questions.

By participating in this competition, you agree to the competition rules.

Learn About RAND, RFI, and Metaculus

RAND: RAND experts provide policymakers around the world with rigorous, nonpartisan research to help solve the most-consequential policy problems.

RFI: The RAND Forecasting Initiative's goal? Become the world's leading crowdsourced forecast provider on questions that inform government policy. Your predictions can help policymakers peer over the horizon.

Metaculus: Metaculus's mission is to build infrastructure that enables the global community to model, understand, predict, and navigate the world's most important and complex challenges.

The Forecasting Research Institute has shared a study they're conducting, which also doubles as an exercise that may strengthen your forecasting abilities. This is completely optional and separate from the forecasting competition. It has no impact on this competition's outcomes. You can participate here.

New to crowdsourced forecasting? Here's an introduction for First-Timers.

And if you want to get in more forecasting practice, there's the Metaculus Cup, with $5,000 in prizes.

RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge

Questions