Welcome to the Trade Signal Tournament! Since September 2020, Metaculus has been cultivating a large data set of economic indicator questions including those for:
- Non-Farm Payrolls
- US GDP
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Industrial Production Index
- Total Retail Sales
- EIA Petroleum Stock
- Durable Goods Order
- Michigan CSI Prelim.
- and US Building Permits
With this data in hand, we wanted to put our money where our mouths were and test the power of the Metaculus Prediction as a trading signal. The predictions made in this tournament will be translated by our Community Trader into trading deals.
This tournament consists of one round and will run from June 15, 2021 to September 30, 2021. It will host two types of questions, our typical nine monthly economic indicators and a set of cocktail-party-friendly finance questions on the future state of the US financial markets.
Thank you for your contributions to this initiative, and as always, Happy Predicting!
11.8.21 Update: Congratulations to SimonM, gjh, and Vang, the top 3 prize winners, as well as all participants who contributed to this trade signal pilot project. Details on the cumulative scores and prize takes of participants can be found in the leaderboard below, and a discussion post with instructions for claiming winnings can be found here.
Note that the leaderboard implements significant improvements to Metaculus’s tournament scoring system, and we invite forecasters to read this discussion post or watch the video version for a thoroughgoing explanation of these changes—changes that will make tournaments even better equipped to assess and reward forecasting ability.