Prize Pool $1,000.00
End Date Apr 30, 2022

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

Part of the Healthy Communities cause.

Welcome to the Keep Virginia Safe Forecasting Tournament! Since March 2020, Metaculus has been providing forecasting and modeling resources to public health professionals and public policy experts as they have navigated critical decisions about COVID-19 interventions in communities around the world.

Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions that have to be made in preparation for the summer and fall. Some of the questions under consideration:

  • How will Memorial Day Weekend impact case counts in Virginia?
  • To what extent do curfews blunt surges in case numbers?
  • How many new cases and hospitalizations can we expect?
  • How will coronavirus variants appear in the population?
  • To what extent does closing schools reduce transmission?
  • How many school districts might participate in on-campus testing programs if they were available?
  • How much testing and genomic surveillance should be done in the state?

This Tournament will directly address these key scientific and policy questions by aggregating knowledge from many experts and forecasters.

The tournament will run from April 2021 until April 2022, with three types of questions:

  • Calibration Questions: these close before the end date of the tournament, and are used to rank you in the tournament
  • Long-term Questions: in order to probe far into the future, and build the Metaculus data set on predictions, we are including a number of far-reaching questions that may not resolve for many years
  • Fortified Essays: these questions challenge you to explain your predictions.

The first round is currently open, and closes at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below! Details regarding Round 2 will be announced over the summer.

Thank you for your contributions to this initiative, and as always, Happy Predicting!


Question status: Player status: Order by: