I'd like to register my confidence: The core of my prediction is that AI capabilities will be significantly more worrying (roughly an order of magnitude more capability than today), such that even Congress will feel an intense urgency to legislate. AI safety legislation will likely be passed this year, and that is even more likely next year, regardless of whether anything gets passed this year. Resolution on this question is a low bar, and AI is a firmly bipartisan issue, including among lawmakers. Geopolitical competition doesn't put a damper on this. China faces the same incentives, and

Consensus looks too low for 'other'. Note that you can get to an 'other' resolution by an exact tie, and IMO probability of a tie isn't as low as 0.1%. I went for 0.5% but mostly intuition based. There is at least one historical precedent for an exact tie during the 72nd Congress starting 1931.

It's looking roughly 50/50 at the moment. Election Betting Odds has it now at 55-45 (in favor of Democrats). https://electionbettingodds.com/House-Control-2026.html The main reason for the huge shift in favor of Republicans recently is probably that they're clearly winning the gerrymandering fight... 1\) There are considerably more seats left that can be gerrymandered for Republicans than there are for Democrats (mainly due to heavy gerrymandering in many Democrat states until now). If this fight goes "nuclear", as it's basically going right now, Republicans are sure to benefit more. 2\) I

Updates since Zaldath's comment last month: California's Proposotion 50 actually passed, estimates seem to be 3-5 additional House seats for Democrats Election Betting Odds is back up at 71-29, favoring the Democrats

Not that I think this affects the outcome on South Carolina but Lindsey Graham(who was up for re-election this november) just passed away.

I have this script that will take the odds for each race from Polymarket, normalize them (accounting for competitive independents in Montana and Nebraska) and then calculate the cumulative distribution for getting >=X (while treating each race as independent). It gets around 53.5% for Dems getting at least 51 seats. The odds at https://electionbettingodds.com/ give Dems around 51%. Overall I feel a little skeptical. The path roughly looks like Maine and North Carolina will flip while keeping their other seats (including Michigan and Georgia). That puts the Dems at 49 . Then there are 4 Republi

Looking at the 2026 map, it seems like possible pickups for Democrats are in Ohio (?), Maine and North Carolina while they are vulnerable in Michigan, Colorado and Georgia. I don't think realistically Texas or Louisiana or any other state seems up for grabs. Even if all of these swing Democrats way, the Republicans still hold the tie-break vote.

The Senate and House respond to different structural forces. Senate control is primarily driven by seat exposure and state-level fundamentals, while the House is more sensitive to national mood and turnout dynamics. In polarized environments, this asymmetry increases the base rate of divided government relative to unified party control.

Platner may be cooked after the latest allegations; he just issued a statement that seemed to heavily imply he's considering dropping out.

Rationale My forecast prioritizes structural asymmetry and base-rate outcomes over short-term polling noise. Rather than treating the four outcomes symmetrically, I decompose the question into separate Senate and House dynamics and recombine them into a joint distribution. Why divided government is the modal outcome Historically, US midterms frequently produce divided Congresses, especially under high polarization. In 2026, this tendency is reinforced by institutional differences between the two chambers: the Senate is driven more by seat exposure and state-level fundamentals, while the Hou

Guardian: In an upset for the Democratic establishment, progressive Angie Nixon won the party’s US Senate primary in Florida, beating former army intelligence officer Alexander Vindman.

The questions about the overall balance of power in the Senate and House have been open for many months. For tournament ranking, does only the coverage from May 27 onwards count?

Does this tournament run until January 2029, since the Democracy Threat Index question can only be resolved after Dec 31 2028?

Up until now I was using polling numbers but not working through the different possible general matchups and what would matter in each case. And after applying the probabilities to each potential path to victory for each candidate I've surprisingly (to me at least) arrived pretty much at the consensus conclusion, so I wanted to document the thought process for myself here.  Based on the most recent polls, Becerra seems virtually guaranteed a top 2 finish in the primary with Steyer and Hilton fairly even to get the other slot. I tried to understand what factors could support either one in

Why was there no adjustment to the expectation on this question when redistricting has or will gerrymander a net 24 seats for the republicans in the house? Louisiana and South Carolina are each drawing in another seat. TX: +3-5R🔴FL: +3-5R🔴OH: +1-3R🔴NC: +1R🔴TN: +1R🔴MO: +1 —R🔵CA: +3-5D🔵UT: +1 D Total Passed:🔴Republicans: +10-16🔵Democrats: +4-6  Pending:🔴LA: +1R. - lawsuit to go to +2R🔴AL: +1🔴SC: +1  House Forecast as of now🔴GOP: 211🔵Dem: 208🟡Tossup: 16 If Pending and lawsuit pass GOP 215 Dem 204 Tossup 16 RNC has more money Dem need to take R+7 districts. June

GOP has won all but two of the state’s last 26 federal or statewide contests and polls overwhelmingly favour Kurt Alme (Source). The latest four-way poll has Republican Kurt Alme leading with 45%, while independent Seth Bodnar (30%) and Democrat Alani Bankhead (15%) divide the opposition. Bankhead’s path is weak because even in a hypothetical two-way contest, she trailed Alme 52–38. Her net favorability was also negative: 17% positive versus 30% negative. The underlying structural problem is that Bodnar attracts substantial anti-Republican support: 56% of Democrats in that poll preferred him o

Republicans have not lost a Senate election in Nebraska since 2006. The last independent to win a Senate election in Nebraska was progressive George Norris in 1936. And also, this election will be the first in which a state did not have a Democratic candidate in back-to-back US Senate election cycles. However, independent Dan Osborn is a serious challenger: he received 46.5% against Deb Fischer in 2024. The aggregate polls justify giving Osborn a substantial upset probability rather than treating this as an ordinary safe-Republican race. (Source)

Trump will veto any bill limiting his power to act, and unless the Democrats have supermajorities in both Houses, this question will therefore always resolve to no.

Just realizing we're already halfway in and there were so many questions I did not forecast on... Not looking good