2026 US Midterm Elections

Real-time forecasts from the Metaculus community.Forecasts from the Metaculus community on contested races and the policies they will shape.

Updated in real time

DemocratRepublican

DemocratRepublican

Chamber control

HouseForecast:88.9% / 11.1%

Current:D 215 / R 220

SenateForecast:40.6% / 59.4%

Current:D 47 / R 53

Congressional Control

Rep House / Rep Senate

Dem House / Rep Senate

Rep House / Dem Senate

Dem House / Dem Senate

Seat Distributions

The community's forecasts for the final seat advantage in each chamber.

Democratic Seat AdvantageRepublican Seat Advantage

Democratic Seat AdvantageRepublican Seat Advantage

Key Drivers

A national emergency declaration could expand federal authority over the election.

Missouri voters decide whether to repeal the abortion-rights protections they enshrined in 2024.

New USPS restrictions could reshape mail-in voting access, but pending lawsuits may block them before November.

A national emergency declaration could expand federal authority over the election.

Missouri voters decide whether to repeal the abortion-rights protections they enshrined in 2024.

New USPS restrictions could reshape mail-in voting access, but pending lawsuits may block them before November.

Electoral Consequences

How forecasted outcomes shift depending on which party holds Congress.

If Dems control

If control is split

If GOP controls

Electoral Consequences

How forecasted outcomes shift depending on which party holds Congress.

Will Trump be impeached again?

if Dem Congress

if Split Congress

if Rep Congress

US Congress limits presidential war powers before Jan 3, 2029?

if Dem Congress

if Split Congress

if Rep Congress

Will there be an unfilled Supreme Court vacancy on Jan 20, 2029?

if Dem Congress

if Split Congress

if Rep Congress

Bill limiting tariff authority pass both chambers during the 120th Congress?

if Dem Congress

if Split Congress

if Rep Congress

Bill limiting abortion funding/access during the 120th Congress?

if Dem Congress

if Split Congress

if Rep Congress

Community Insights

Adonis

Metaculus User

https://electionbettingodds.com/House-Control-2026.html

laterre

Metaculus User

The background info should mention that there are also 2 class III special elections this cycle. One in Ohio for Vance's replacement and one in Florida for Rubio's replacement. There are 35 total seats up for grabs this election. 

ÅXXXL

Metaculus User

The Senate and House respond to different structural forces. Senate control is primarily driven by seat exposure and state-level fundamentals, while the House is more sensitive to national mood and turnout dynamics. In polarized environments, this asymmetry increases the base rate of divided government relative to unif