forecasting intelligent estimations composing probable wisdom modeling probable insights predicting contingent forecasts calculating quantitative estimations mapping the future crowdsourcing critical predictions delivering calibrated estimations mapping calibrated understanding generating precise contingencies composing predictive estimations generating probable contingencies exploring calibrated insights predicting calibrated estimations

Profile

username gjm
formerly known as
member since February 16, 2016
bio
{{err}}
Save Changes
Metaculus supporter – {{pctrl.supporterName()}}
supporter since {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}

Change your username

Cost: {{user.username_change_cost}} tachyons

You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.

Brand new users can change their names for free. After a few days it will cost tachyons.

Stats

level 17 (Time Lord)
predictions 1731 predictions on 859 questions (479 resolved)
comments 693 comments on 319 questions
rank 5th
authorship 7 active questions
achievements