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- July 14, 2016
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Forecaster Stats
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9582 predictions on 2206 questions (1300 resolved)
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800 comments on 371 questions
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1804 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Effective Altruism (8)
- PhilPapers Surveys 2020 (4)
- Politics – US (4)
- Biological Sciences – Medicine (3)
- Elections – U.S. – President (3)
Popular Questions
- In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20] (1425 forecasts)
- [short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name? (915 forecasts)
- Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday? (318 forecasts)
- How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029? (241 forecasts)
- By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years? (235 forecasts)