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Pablo
Predictions
9512
Comments
815
Member Since
July 2016
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Pablo
In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?
Ambiguous
By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?
result
No
By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
result
4.22
By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
result
2.94
By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?
result
0.169
By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?
result
0.0377
By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
result
176.524k
In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]
result
07 Jan 2021 18:00
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
result
No
[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?
Ambiguous
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