exploring predictive contingencies mapping contingent forecasts exploring contingent predictions delivering predictive forecasts composing probable estimations mapping the future predicting intelligent understanding crowdsourcing critical contingencies forecasting contingent wisdom forecasting calibrated wisdom modeling definitive predictions aggregating calibrated forecasts mapping probable predictions formulating intelligent insights
Rankings Categories Find Questions

Profile

username aran
formerly known as
member since August 13, 2017
bio
website {{pctrl.profile.website}}
{{err}}
Save Changes
Metaculus supporter – {{pctrl.supporterName()}}
supporter since {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}

Change your username

Cost: {{user.username_change_cost}} tachyons

You can change your username once every six months. Your old username will be listed as an alias in your profile for 30 days.

Brand new users can change their names for free. After a few days it will cost tachyons.

required field
usernames don't match
{{err}}

Stats

level 10 (Superpredictor)
predictions 1191 predictions on 452 questions (195 resolved)
comments 238 comments on 136 questions
rank 26th
authorship 4 active questions
achievements