Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- February 1, 2018
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"tachyonsCost" | translate:({tachyons: user.username_change_cost})}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescriptionNewUser" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
7504 predictions on 1978 questions (966 resolved)
Comments
2791 comments on 1405 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- AI & Cybersecurity
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- 🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- ⚡Superconductor Frontiers⚡
- Antibody Characterization through Open Science
- Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring
- Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions
- Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
56443 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Sports (181)
- Biology – Infectious Disease (113)
- Geopolitics – Armed Conflict (88)
- Elections – U.S. – President (75)
- Elections – U.S. – 2024 U.S. Elections (74)
Popular Questions
- Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? (6693 forecasts)
- Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024? (2226 forecasts)
- Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? (1985 forecasts)
- Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024? (1901 forecasts)
- How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000) (1770 forecasts)