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casens
Predictions
8308
Comments
3052
Member Since
February 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by casens
35
comments
45
forecasters
When will the next total solar eclipse occur?
community
08 Apr 2024 17:50
result
Ambiguous
8
comments
9
forecasters
When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?
Current estimate
Dec 2044
82
comments
235
forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Gavin Newsom (D)
Annulled
17 others
condition
Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election?
Resolved:
Yes
36
forecasters
if yes
if no
Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?
54%
54%
Resolved:
No
Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?
81%
81%
Resolved:
Annulled
0
comments
36
36
forecasters
condition
Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination?
Resolved:
Yes
77
forecasters
if yes
if no
Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?
0%
0%
Resolved:
No
Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?
30%
30%
Resolved:
Annulled
9
12
12
comments
77
77
forecasters
4
comments
11
forecasters
What will be the level of anthropogenic methane emissions in 2050?
Current estimate
10.2 GtCO2e/year
condition
Next US Economic Recession? (2024)
Closed
38
forecasters
if yes
if no
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
45%
45%
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
57%
57%
4
3
3
comments
38
38
forecasters
condition
Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024
Resolved:
No
25
forecasters
if yes
if no
Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
2%
2%
Resolved:
Annulled
Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
1%
1%
Resolved:
No
5
0
comments
25
25
forecasters
2
comments
52
forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
result
No
condition
US Government Shutdown Before 2024?
Resolved:
No
16
forecasters
if yes
if no
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
51%
51%
Resolved:
Annulled
Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
51%
51%
Resolved:
No
1
1
comment
16
16
forecasters
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