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- June 26, 2018
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Forecaster Stats
Level
ā (Admin)
Predictions
4032 predictions on 1260 questions (730 resolved)
Comments
3112 comments on 1119 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- š°Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament š°
- š° The Sagan Space Tournament š°
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- š¤ LLM Milestones š¤
- š°Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament š°
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- AI & Cybersecurity
- š° Breaking News Tournament š°
- š°Beginner Tournament š°
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- š Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup š
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- ā”Superconductor Frontiersā”
- FluSight Challenge 2023/24
- Antibody Characterization through Open Science
- Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring
- Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions
- Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions
- š Quarterly Cup š
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
4413 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Biological Sciences ā Bioengineering (18)
- Politics (10)
- Metaculus Itself (8)
- Short-fuse (6)
- Geopolitics (6)
Popular Questions
- Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21? (3139 forecasts)
- Will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10,000 people in 2020? (945 forecasts)
- Will World GDP grow every year until 2025? (847 forecasts)
- Will all major 2020 US presidential candidates survive the COVID-19 epidemic? (721 forecasts)
- Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? (451 forecasts)