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dan
Predictions
279
Comments
116
Member Since
September 2018
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Overview
Track Record
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Questions by dan
A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts
no comments
0
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?
6%
chance
LRT 2.3.1: Will total newly reported deaths in the U.S. first fall below 5,000 on the 7-day period ending on May 2nd or the 7-day period ending on May 9th?
result
No
Lightning Round Tournament Question 2.3.0
5
15 comments
15
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?
result
10.88M
LRT 2.1: What is the number of total confirmed cases in the US that COVID Tracker will have in the daily report this coming Sunday, May 3rd?
result
1.152006M
Lightning Round Tournament Discussion 1.0
7
5 comments
5
Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round
LRT 1.6: When will the daily number of new hospital admissions for COVID-19 illness in New York City drop below 200 for the first time since mid-March?
result
09 May 2020
LRT 1.5: How many deaths due to COVID-19 will occur in the US in 2020?
result
336.811k
LRT 1.4: As of Saturday May 9, 2020, how many COVID-19 related deaths will have occurred in Louisiana?
result
2267
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