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- February 17, 2020
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Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
748 predictions on 155 questions (120 resolved)
Comments
675 comments on 309 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- 🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
- FRO-casting
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
10765 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) (53)
- Consensus Forecasting to Improve Public Health (37)
- Biology – Infectious Disease (32)
- Tournament –– Keep Virginia Safe -- Round 3 (32)
- Biology — Biosecurity (31)
Popular Questions
- When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? (1513 forecasts)
- Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? (1367 forecasts)
- Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? (1074 forecasts)
- When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? (998 forecasts)
- Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? (989 forecasts)