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- March 4, 2020
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Forecaster Stats
Predictions
379 predictions on 280 questions (132 resolved)
Comments
86 comments on 63 questions
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Keep Virginia Safe II
- FRO-casting
- Conditional Cup
- FluSight Challenge 2023/24
- Chinese AI Chips
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Forecasts
4341 unique forecasts on authored questions
Popular Questions
- Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023? (570 forecasts)
- Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? (544 forecasts)
- Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023? (509 forecasts)
- Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? (465 forecasts)
- Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023? (430 forecasts)