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dschwarz
Predictions
381
Comments
97
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by dschwarz
Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?
result
Yes
Will these AI labs launch a mechanism to enable users to understand if content is generated by their AIs before July 1, 2024?
Google Deep Mind
result:
No
Inflection
result:
No
Meta
result:
No
and 2 others
Will these AI labs publish a report with results from external red-teaming of their models for safety by June 30, 2024?
Inflection
result:
No
Meta
result:
No
OpenAI
result:
No
and 2 others
Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?
result
No
condition
AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook
Resolved:
No
6 forecasters
if yes
if no
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
09 Jun 2025
Resolved:
Annulled
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
02 May 2026
2
no comments
0
condition
AI in 2024 Presidential Debates
Resolved:
No
11 forecasters
if yes
if no
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
15 Jan 2026
Resolved:
Annulled
When AI concern go mainstream in US?
04 Apr 2026
5
1 comment
1
condition
Deepfake Attempt in Major News in 2023
Resolved:
Yes
5 forecasters
if yes
if no
When will GPT5 be announced?
25 Aug 2024
When will GPT5 be announced?
10 Aug 2024
Resolved:
Annulled
3
no comments
0
Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?
7%
chance
Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?
10%
chance
When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?
result
13 May 2024
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