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NunoSempere
Predictions
292
Comments
161
Member Since
March 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by NunoSempere
0
comments
17
forecasters
Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2031?
19%
chance
6
comments
40
forecasters
Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?
result
No
7
comments
46
forecasters
Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?
33%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
12
comments
56
forecasters
Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?
69.6%
chance
6
comments
49
forecasters
Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?
60%
chance
7%
this week
1
comment
52
forecasters
Will the Simon Institute for Longterm Governance have more than two full-time employees in 2025?
51%
chance
11
comments
17
forecasters
Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a family planning charity as part of its 2021 incubation program?
result
No
3
comments
18
forecasters
Will Charity Entrepreneurship launch a charity fortifying feed for hens as part of its 2021 incubation program?
result
Yes
28
comments
44
forecasters
Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by "the left" or by "the right"?
Latest estimate
97.4
This question is closed for forecasting.
5
comments
22
forecasters
What percentage of predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?
Current estimate
7.73%
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