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Cato
Predictions
4042
Comments
676
Member Since
December 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Cato
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030)
2
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
56%
56%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
9%
9%
1
0
comments
2
2
forecasters
9
comments
308
forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republicans
68%
Democrats
31.9%
Other
0.1%
15
comments
454
forecasters
Which party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
Democrats
68%
Republicans
31.9%
Other
0.1%
0
comments
10
forecasters
How many teams will compete in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
40 to 49
48.1%
60 or More
45%
50 to 59
6.3%
2 others
1%
1
comment
17
forecasters
Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?
76%
chance
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2026)
4
forecasters
if yes
if no
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
16.3k
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
26.1k
2
1
1
comment
4
4
forecasters
6
comments
5
forecasters
How many teams will compete in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)
6
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
60%
60%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
15%
15%
5
5
comments
6
6
forecasters
condition
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
2
forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
90%
90%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
57%
57%
1
1
comment
2
2
forecasters
2
comments
6
forecasters
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
Current estimate
24.2k
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