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Cato
Predictions
4042
Comments
676
Member Since
December 2020
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Cato
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2030)
2 forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
56%
56%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
9%
9%
1
no comments
0
Which party will hold a plurality in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republicans
64.8%
Democrats
35.1%
Other
0.1%
Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?
Democrats
78%
Republicans
21.9%
Other
0.1%
How many teams will compete in the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
60 or More
51.8%
40 to 49
43.8%
50 to 59
3.8%
and 2 others
Will the US-China Tension index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?
73%
chance
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2026)
4 forecasters
if yes
if no
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
16.3k
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
24.8k
2
1 comment
1
condition
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)
5 forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
75%
75%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
11%
11%
5 comments
5
condition
Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?
2 forecasters
if yes
if no
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
90%
90%
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?
57%
57%
1 comment
1
What will be the value of the Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) at the end of 2026?
22.8k
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