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- April 23, 2021
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Forecaster Stats
Level
∞ (Admin)
Predictions
199 predictions on 66 questions (37 resolved)
Comments
24 comments on 19 questions
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰Q4 2022 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
- 🔰Beginner Tournament 🔰
- Regulation of AI
- Public Perception of AI
- AI Demonstrations
- Business of AI
- AI Training and Compute
- AGI Outcomes
- AI in China
- AI Technical Benchmarks
- AI Safety
- 🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆
- Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
111 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (4)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (3)
- Metaculus Itself (1)
Popular Questions
- Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024? (98 forecasts)
- Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? (95 forecasts)
- Will backpropagation take a back seat by 2030? (62 forecasts)
- What will the Metaculus Community Prediction bias on the next 20 AI benchmark questions be? (6 forecasts)