Predictions5423
Comments116
Member SinceJuly 2021
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?
Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
result
More than 01 Jan 2025
Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?
Current estimate
5.18 score
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?
Current estimate
88.3B billion animals
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?