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will_aldred
Predictions
5423
Comments
116
Member Since
July 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by will_aldred
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?
70%
chance
5% this week
Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?
2%
chance
3% this week
When will Claude 3.5 Opus be released?
result
More than 01 Jan 2025
Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence?
result
Yes
Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
15%
chance
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
70%
chance
Five years after AGI, how happy will people be?
5.42
score
Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?
65%
chance
Five years after AGI, how many animals will be slaughtered in factory farms?
89.1B
billion animals
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
5%
chance
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