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- September 8, 2021
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Forecaster Stats
Level
2 (Guesser)
Predictions
47 predictions on 20 questions (5 resolved)
Comments
49 comments on 29 questions
Rank
5590th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
557 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning (16)
- Effective Altruism (14)
- Computing – Artificial Intelligence (5)
- Existential Risk (5)
Popular Questions
- Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023? (250 forecasts)
- Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025? (190 forecasts)
- How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time? (2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31) (160 forecasts)
- How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time? (2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31) (149 forecasts)
- How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time? (2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31) (144 forecasts)