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Lawrence
Predictions
47
Comments
53
Member Since
September 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Lawrence
3
comments
30
forecasters
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
45%
chance
5%
this week
7
comments
15
forecasters
Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?
12
comments
28
forecasters
When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?
Current estimate
15 Apr 2028
0
comments
8
forecasters
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
Current estimate
25 Feb 2025
20
comments
64
forecasters
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
community
26 May 2025
result
Annulled
5
comments
97
forecasters
Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?
result
No
9
comments
11
forecasters
When will Open-Assistant be available for public use via a web interface?
community
19 Jul 2023
result
06 Apr 2023 00:00
6
comments
33
forecasters
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
55%
chance
22
comments
97
forecasters
Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
Annulled
19
comments
104
forecasters
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
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