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Lawrence
Predictions
47
Comments
53
Member Since
September 2021
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Lawrence
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
54%
chance
When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?
22 Jan 2028
When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?
02 Jan 2025
When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?
18 Feb 2025
Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?
result
No
When will Open-Assistant be available for public use via a web interface?
result
06 Apr 2023 00:00
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
60%
chance
Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?
Annulled
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
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