Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?
18%chance
Key Factors
Putin won the 2024 Russian election with 87% of the vote, indicating strong political control and consolidation of power.
Russia's defense spending will make up 32.5% of its federal budget in 2025, up from 28.3% in 2024, indicating a significant focus on military activities.
Russia's economy is under pressure with inflation spiking, leading to a record high interest rate of 21% as of December 2024.