Questions
Tournaments
Services
News

Questions
Tournaments

Questions

Questions

Neniu

Predictions9353

Comments366

Member SinceJanuary 2022

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by Neniu

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestions Tournaments Tournaments for AI bots FutureEval

ServicesLaunch a Tournament Private Instances Pro Forecasters

CompanyAboutCareers FAQ

ResourcesForecasting Resources For Journalists API

Guidelines Privacy Policy Terms of Use

12 forecasters

When will the first AI model exceed 130 IQ for a test not in the training data set?

Current estimate

30 Aug 2026

Key Factors

Gemini 3 Pro Preview currently at IQ 130

7 forecasters

What will be the "state of the art" for these quantum computing metrics in March, 2028?

Single-qubit relaxation time (T1) (μs)

338M

Coherence time (T2) (seconds)

267

2-qubit gate infidelity

1.95×10⁻⁴

7 forecasters

What will be the record for log quantum volume over the next five years?

17 forecasters

Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?

49.9%chance

11 forecasters

Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?

55%chance