IY

Predictions11619

Comments1125

Member SinceFebruary 2022

19 forecasters

98 forecasters

18.4 Incidents

16 Incidents

59 forecasters

>31 Dec 2025 23:59

More than 31 Dec 2025 23:59

73 forecasters

6.83 provinces

88 forecasters

>31 Dec 2025 23:00

More than 31 Dec 2025 23:00

127 forecasters

126 forecasters

21 forecasters

Ukraineresult: No

Peruresult: No

Israelresult: No

United Statesresult: No

108 forecasters

31 forecasters

87 forecasters

106 forecasters

0result: Yes

101 forecasters

124 forecasters

Current estimate

6.29 members

83 forecasters

132.056k jobs

97 forecasters

Scalability of LLMs

134 forecasters

9% this week

Revenue requires eightfold growth in two years
AI value capture by companies
Impact of in-house applications on revenue

9 forecasters

102 forecasters

112 forecasters

212 forecasters

Markets complying with a simple recommendation
Mass cyber attack
Banks over leveraged.

123 forecasters

133 forecasters

77 forecasters

2025-2026 sunset w/ safe harbor42.3%

2027-2028 sunset w/o safe harbor10.3%

2027-2028 sunset w/ safe harborresult: Yes

No sunset reduction before 202622.1%

IY

Questions by IY

Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?

How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?

When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?

How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?

When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?

Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?

Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?

Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025?

Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?

Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?

What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?

On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic have revenue of at least $100B in 2027?

Will Ghana sign into law "The Proper Human Sexual Rights and Ghanaian Family Values" bill before 2026?

Will Newcastle United Football Club renege on their club badge redesign before August 16, 2025?

Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?

Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?

Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?

Will the word "tariff" disappear from the front pages of The New York Times and Wall Street Journal before July 2025?

What will happen next concerning the repeal of the 45V (hydrogen) tax credit of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act?