IY

Predictions11619

Comments1125

Member SinceFebruary 2022

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by IY

14 forecasters

Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?

28%chance

98 forecasters

How many maritime piracy & armed robbery incidents will the International Maritime Bureau report for Q1 2026?

community

18.4 Incidents

result

16 Incidents

59 forecasters

When will CATL receive regulatory approval to reopen the Jianxiawo mine?

community

>31 Dec 2025 23:59

result

More than 31 Dec 2025 23:59

73 forecasters

How many provinces in Ecuador will be in a state of emergency on December 25, 2025?

community

6.83 provinces

result

7 provinces

88 forecasters

When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?

community

>31 Dec 2025 23:00

result

More than 31 Dec 2025 23:00

127 forecasters

Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?

resultYes

126 forecasters

Will Spirit Airlines emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy before 2026?

resultNo

21 forecasters

Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025?

Ukraine

result: No

Peru

result: No

Israel

result: No

United States

result: No

2 others

108 forecasters

Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?

resultNo

31 forecasters

Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?

resultYes

87 forecasters

What will be the change in the value of Berkshire Hathaway’s stock holdings for Q2 2025?

community

1.69B $

result

-2.286B $

106 forecasters

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

0

result: Yes

1

7.4%

2

2.9%

3

0.5%

≥ 4

0.3%

101 forecasters

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

resultNo

127 forecasters

How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?

Current estimate

6.33 members

83 forecasters

On July 17, 2025, what will be the revised change in the UK payroll jobs data for May 2025?

community

-1287 jobs

result

132.056k jobs

98 forecasters

Which year will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic first reach a valuation of at least $1 trillion?

2025

0.1%

2026

94.2%

2027

5.4%

2028

0.1%

2 others

Key Factors

Scalability of LLMs