lbiii

Predictions9441

Comments290

Member SinceMay 2022

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by lbiii

8 forecasters

What will voter turnout be in Spain's November 29, 2026 general election?

Current estimate

70.5%

6 forecasters

When will Spain's Congress of Deputies invest a Prime Minister following the November 29, 2026 general election?

Current estimate

25 Jan 2027

12 forecasters

What share of the vote will Vox win in Spain's November 29, 2026 general election?

Current estimate

19.2%

27 forecasters

Which party will win the most votes in Spain's November 29, 2026 general election?

PP

76.7%

PSOE

20.7%

Vox

2%

Another party

0.5%

15 forecasters

Who will be the first person invested as Prime Minister of Spain after the November 29, 2026 general election?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

90.6%

Pedro Sánchez

6.6%

Santiago Abascal

0.3%

Another person

2.3%

No one before October 1, 2027

0.1%

9 forecasters

How many seats will each of the following parties win in Spain's November 29, 2026 general election?

People's Party (PP)

131

Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)

110

Vox Party

66.9

Frente Amplio

11.9

29 forecasters

Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher valuation on January 1, 2027?

OpenAI

18%

Anthropic

82%

11 forecasters

Will US federal agencies cease international arrival processing at any of the following airports for 3 or more consecutive days before 2027?

5%chance

46 forecasters

[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?

community

<10 Percent

result

11 Percent

47 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?

0

0.1%

1

0.1%

2

result: Yes

3

3.2%

4 or more

0.1%

98 forecasters

Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?

Alphabet

20%

Anthropic

34.9%

OpenAI

32.1%

Other

7.5%

2 others

26 forecasters

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

Annulled

33 forecasters

Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

resultNo

552 forecasters

How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?

67

0.1%

68 to 70

result: Yes

71 to 75

41.1%

76 to 85

1%

3 others

231 forecasters

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Dem Senate / Dem House

result: Yes

Rep Senate / Rep House

4.1%

Dem Senate / Rep House

0.1%

Rep Senate / Dem House

23.7%

13 forecasters

Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published?

resultNo