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lbiii
Predictions
9278
Comments
290
Member Since
May 2022
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by lbiii
2 comments
21 forecasters
Will OpenAI or Anthropic have a higher valuation on January 1, 2027?
OpenAI
25%
Anthropic
75%
1 comment
7 forecasters
Will US federal agencies cease international arrival processing at any of the following airports for 3 or more consecutive days before 2027?
20%
chance
4 comments
46 forecasters
[Short fuse] What will be the Rotten Tomatoes Rating for "Melania" on February 13th, 2026?
community
<10 Percent
result
11 Percent
2 comments
47 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur during September 2025?
0
0.1%
1
0.1%
2
result:
Yes
3
3.2%
4 or more
0.1%
5 comments
85 forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
27.6%
Anthropic
30.7%
OpenAI
24.2%
Other
10.2%
2 others
14 comments
26 forecasters
If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?
Annulled
37 comments
33 forecasters
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?
result
No
34 comments
552 forecasters
How many total confirmed human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States as of March 31, 2025?
67
0.1%
68 to 70
result:
Yes
71 to 75
41.1%
76 to 85
1%
3 others
6 comments
151 forecasters
Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?
Dem Senate / Dem House
38.7%
Rep Senate / Rep House
13.6%
Dem Senate / Rep House
1.4%
Rep Senate / Dem House
46.3%
Key Factors
Structural asymmetry between the Senate and House in 2026
3 comments
13 forecasters
Before the end of President Biden's term, will the Equal Rights Amendment be certified and published?
result
No
54 comments
29 forecasters
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be less than or equal to 3,900?
result
No
56 comments
29 forecasters
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than 3,900 and less than 4,150?
result
Yes
57 comments
29 forecasters
Will the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024 be greater than or equal to 4,150?
result
No
56 comments
29 forecasters
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
result
No
5 comments
40 forecasters
What will be the value of China's CSI 300 stock index at market close on December 31st, 2024?
community
3990
result
3934.91
16 comments
74 forecasters
Will Blue Origin launch its New Glenn rocket before January 1, 2025?
result
No
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