Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?

What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?

What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025?

This question is closed for forecasting.