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MetaCalculator
Predictions
187
Comments
190
Member Since
October 2022
Overview
Track Record
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Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by MetaCalculator
When will a G-20 country field fully-autonomous, no human-in-the-loop lethal military AI weapon systems?
Key Factor
GOP candidate wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
May 2031
21 months this week
Key Factor
GOP candidate wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Will Syria be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040?
10%
chance
When will Palestine become a full UN member state?
Jan 2042
condition
NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?
46 forecasters
if yes
if no
Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?
25%
25%
Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?
3%
3%
4
3 comments
3
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
chance
Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?
7%
chance
Will any member country leave BRICS before 2035?
75%
chance
Will Turkey be a member of the European Union by 2040?
5%
chance
Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?
result
No
When will the remaining six Millennium Prize problems be solved?
00
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