Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
jleibowich
Predictions
150
Comments
247
Member Since
November 2022
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by jleibowich
25 comments
786 forecasters
Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?
result
No
19 comments
390 forecasters
Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
result
Yes
56 comments
783 forecasters
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
result
Yes
51 comments
248 forecasters
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
result
No
34 comments
719 forecasters
Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
result
Yes
6 comments
22 forecasters
Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?
Annulled
3 comments
86 forecasters
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
41%
chance
16 comments
39 forecasters
Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?
result
No
5 comments
48 forecasters
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
result
No
21 comments
132 forecasters
Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?
result
No
23 comments
108 forecasters
Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
result
Yes
3 comments
17 forecasters
Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?
OpenAI
result:
Yes
Google DeepMind
result:
No
Anthropic
result:
No
3 comments
21 forecasters
Will the listed AI companies/labs create a board risk committee before January 1st, 2025?
OpenAI
result:
Yes
Anthropic
result:
No
Google DeepMind
result:
No
16 comments
52 forecasters
Will the listed AI companies/labs pause any of their models before January 1st, 2025 because they detect dangerous capabilities?
Anthropic
result:
No
OpenAI
result:
No
Google DeepMind
result:
No
6 comments
23 forecasters
Will the listed AI companies/labs practice implementing emergency response plans before January 1st, 2025?
Google DeepMind
result:
No
Anthropic
result:
No
OpenAI
result:
No
0 comments
Seeing the Future Through Fiction: How to Harness Your Creativity for Forecasting