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TNTOutburst
Predictions
22
Comments
154
Member Since
March 2023
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by TNTOutburst
4 comments
4 forecasters
Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" correctly predict the popular vote winner in the 2028 US presidential election?
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will correctly predict the 2028 Popular Vote Winner
60%
"Change in Average Inflation Rate" will be below 0% for the 2028 election
40%
16 comments
20 forecasters
If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?
Current estimate
01 Sep 2029
16 comments
9 forecasters
What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release?
community
74.4
result
71.8
83 comments
46 forecasters
How many false keys will there be in the 2024 edition of "The Keys to the White House"?
community
4.03
result
4
18 comments
104 forecasters
Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Nova Kakhovka
5%
Polohy
2.8%
Tokmak
1.5%
Sievierodonetsk
1%
10 others
26 comments
52 forecasters
What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?
community
82.8
result
76
16 comments
68 forecasters
When will a humanoid robot be created that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans?
Current estimate
Aug 2053
52 comments
69 forecasters
When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users?
community
10 Jun 2024
result
16 May 2024 08:00 UTC