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sandman
Predictions
82
Comments
46
Member Since
March 2023
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by sandman
3
comments
55
forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
Current estimate
9
Introducing Comments of the Week
16
18
18
comments
Experimental Feature: Question Links
9
5
5
comments
Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal
7
70
70
comments
0
comments
1
forecaster
What percentage in the US will trust AI in the following years, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer?
1
comment
25
forecasters
Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?
87%
chance
0
comments
10
forecasters
Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?
33%
chance
0
comments
4
forecasters
Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?
Embryo gene editing
45.9%
In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)
32.3%
Neither/Other
21.8%
1
comment
8
forecasters
Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?
98%
chance
0
comments
10
forecasters
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040?
25%
chance
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