sandman

Predictions102

Comments51

Member SinceMarch 2023

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by sandman

Announcing the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup - $5000 prize pool

1 forecaster

Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]

2%chance

1 forecaster

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030? [QL]

Current estimate

58%

Key Factors

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]

1 forecaster

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]

Current estimate

6.54%

Key Factors

Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]

3 forecasters

When will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved? [QL]

Current estimate

Nov 2058

1 forecaster

Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]

93%chance

Key Factors

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]

4 forecasters

When will a rechargeable battery with capacity 750 Wh/kg be available for purchase? [QL]

Current estimate

Oct 2033

16 forecasters

Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?

community

6.28

result

4

Introducing Comments of the Week

Experimental Feature: Question Links

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

4 forecasters

What percentage in the US will trust AI in the following years, according to the Edelman Trust Barometer?

35 forecasters

Will cryptocurrencies account for at least 1% of U.S. retail payments before January 1, 2035?

86%chance

12 forecasters

Will an FDA-approved diagnostic test that predicts individual response to longevity interventions be commercially available and covered by insurers by January 1, 2030?

33%chance

4 forecasters

Which reproductive technology will achieve more clinical trial successes in human trait selection by 2035?

In vitro gametogenesis (IVG)

32.3%

Embryo gene editing

45.9%

Neither/Other

21.8%

19 forecasters

Will an AI shopping agent service achieve significant commercial deployment by December 31, 2026?

95.5%chance