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sandman
Predictions
104
Comments
51
Member Since
March 2023
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Overview
Track Record
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Questions by sandman
0 comments
8 forecasters
Will median wages grow faster for construction and extraction occupations than for computer and mathematical occupations from May 2026 to May 2035?
60%
chance
0 comments
6 forecasters
What will the US nonfarm business labor share index average in 2035?
Current estimate
92.5 index (2017 = 100)
0 comments
6 forecasters
Will US manufacturing output be higher in 2035 than in 2025, while US manufacturing employment is lower?
66%
chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will a US union contract covering at least 10,000 workers, ratified in 2027 or 2028, include explicit limits on deploying humanoid or mobile robots?
55%
chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
Will the US Department of Defense award a contract worth more than $250 million for autonomous or uncrewed ground robots before 2029?
90%
chance
0 comments
5 forecasters
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?
Current estimate
8.32 months
0 comments
Integrated Strategic Forecasting: A New RAND x Metaculus Methodology
13 comments
Announcing the Question Links contest for the Spring Cup - $5000 prize pool
0 comments
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]
%
chance
0 comments
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030? [QL]
Current estimate
Key Factors
What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]
0 comments
What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]
Current estimate
Key Factors
100% chance
Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]
0 comments
2 forecasters
When will room-temperature and -pressure superconductivity be achieved? [QL]
Current estimate
Sep 2048
0 comments
Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]
%
chance
Key Factors
What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States? [QL]
0 comments
2 forecasters
When will a rechargeable battery with capacity 750 Wh/kg be available for purchase? [QL]
Current estimate
Nov 2034
11 comments
16 forecasters
Where will ManticAI place in the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025 leaderboard?
community
6.28
result
4
18 comments
Introducing Comments of the Week
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