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Perspectus
Predictions
6323
Comments
424
Member Since
March 2023
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Perspectus
Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?
28%
chance
How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?
Key Factor
Heavy police presence likely mitigates violence
result
5
fatalities
Key Factor
Heavy police presence likely mitigates violence
[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?
result
Yes
Will India surpass Germany to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by the end of 2025?
17%
chance
What percentage of U.S. electricity will come from renewable sources (wind, solar, hydro) in 2025?
24.1
Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?
88%
chance
8% this week
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
30%
chance
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
27%
chance
14.5% this week
Will Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?
20%
chance
Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?
Canada
result:
Yes
USA
result:
No
Finland
result:
No
and 1 other
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