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Perspectus
Predictions
9750
Comments
615
Member Since
March 2023
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Perspectus
20 comments
67 forecasters
Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 2 days
%
chance
Key Factors
Dylan's recalculated average peer score should bring him to CP competing range
Dylan has tournament experience but not Cup experience (increases uncertainty)
Nathan won in the Spring Cup, the base rate is higher than was expected
19 comments
117 forecasters
How many runs will be scored in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic?
community
68.6 Runs
result
59 Runs
96 comments
217 forecasters
Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?
result
No
15 comments
191 forecasters
Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?
result
Yes
3 comments
30 forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2026?
50%
chance
6 comments
23 forecasters
Will India surpass Germany in GDP during 2026?
14%
chance
10 comments
11 forecasters
Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?
48%
chance
13 comments
73 forecasters
How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?
community
4.31 fatalities
result
5 fatalities
5 comments
15 forecasters
[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?
result
Yes
10 comments
18 forecasters
Will India surpass Germany in GDP by the end of 2025?
result
No
8 comments
7 forecasters
What percentage of U.S. electricity will come from renewable sources (wind, solar, hydro) in 2025?
community
24.3
result
24.33
6 comments
47 forecasters
Will a new bill amending the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act become law in 2025?
result
Yes
16 comments
22 forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
result
No
14 comments
20 forecasters
Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?
result
Yes
4 comments
4 forecasters
Will Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
6 comments
13 forecasters
Which team will win the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off?
Canada
result:
Yes
Finland
0.1%
Sweden
0.1%
USA
44.1%
35 comments
140 forecasters
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2029?
0.6%
chance
44 comments
41 forecasters
Which NHL team will win the 2022-23 Stanley Cup?
Vegas Golden Knights
result:
Yes
Boston Bruins
result:
No
Edmonton Oilers
result:
No
Toronto Maple Leafs
result:
No
10 others
86 comments
76 forecasters
Which team will win the 2022-23 NBA Championship?
Denver Nuggets
result:
Yes
Philadelphia 76ers
result:
No
Milwaukee Bucks
result:
No
Boston Celtics
result:
No
9 others