Predictions1450
Comments485
Member SinceAugust 2023
occupationPhilosopher
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
When will the Chinese-built Comac C929 wide-body aircraft enter commercial operations?
Current estimate
13 Sep 2030
Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?
Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?
Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?
What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?
Current estimate
230 RTX 4060 = 100
Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?