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DavidHume
Predictions
1399
Comments
479
Member Since
August 2023
occupation
Philosopher
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by DavidHume
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
result
No
condition
US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?
3 forecasters
if yes
if no
US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?
67%
67%
US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?
25%
25%
5 comments
5
condition
US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?
5 forecasters
if yes
if no
US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?
55%
55%
US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?
22%
22%
1
no comments
0
When will the Chinese-built Comac C929 wide-body aircraft enter commercial operations?
Sep 2030
Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?
20%
chance
Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?
18%
chance
Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?
result
Yes
What will be the relative performance of a $400 GPU (nominal 2030 US dollars) from Nvidia in December 2030 compared to the RTX 4060?
241
RTX 4060 = 100
Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?
2.5%
chance
Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?
85%
chance
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