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romeodean

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Member SinceFebruary 2024

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2 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following AI R&D risk levels?

1 forecaster

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Instrumental Reasoning risk levels?

6 forecasters

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

00

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

Autonomy level 1Upcoming

Uplift level 1Upcoming

42 forecasters

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

1 forecaster

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Biological and Chemical?

1 forecaster

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on Cybersecurity?

8 forecasters

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

Current estimate

19 Apr 2030

3 forecasters

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

Current estimate

16 Oct 2027

1 forecaster

When will Google first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN uplift level 1?

Current estimate

>Jun 2036