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ADQ
Predictions
15661
Comments
1547
Member Since
February 2024
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by ADQ
0 comments
3 forecasters
When will a nanotechnology process demonstrate atomically precise manufacturing at a rate of 1 atom per second?
Current estimate
Aug 2045
4 comments
7 forecasters
Will the Sentinel‑2 archive be compressed at a ratio of 1000× before 2032?
2%
chance
Key Factors
Compression ratios unlikely to improve drastically
3 comments
10 forecasters
Will the EU chemicals and plastics sectors be ≥50% bio-based before 2034?
10%
chance
Key Factors
Insufficient supply of bio-based materials
Competition from aviation fuels reduces bio-carbon
3 comments
5 forecasters
Will a publicly accessible UK Ecological Resilience Dashboard cover ≥50% of land with multi-modal weekly data before 2035?
25%
chance
2 comments
6 forecasters
Will a genetically engineered living biosensor be successfuly deployed in the field for ≥3 months before 2032?
40%
chance
13 comments
87 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 500
1.5%
Nikkei 225
result:
Yes
FTSE 100
0.1%
Hang Seng Index
0.1%
2 others
15 comments
136 forecasters
Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?
result
Yes
4 comments
11 forecasters
Will England authorise the release of a GMM for non-human-medicine use before 2035?
70%
chance
2 comments
90 forecasters
Which Bloc will form the 2026 Danish Government?
Blue Bloc
0.5%
Red Bloc
2.9%
Cross Bloc
2%
No Formation before May
result:
Yes
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
35%
chance
Key Factors
90% success rate by winning team shows potential
AI better at assessing protein structure
8 comments
7 forecasters
How many protein–ligand sensing pairs will be catalogued in GroovDB on January 1, 2030?
Current estimate
1092 sensors
7 comments
104 forecasters
How many charges will the ICC confirm against Rodrigo Duterte before May 2026?
0
4%
1
8.1%
2
18.1%
3
result:
Yes
No Decision
17%
12 comments
100 forecasters
What will U.S consumer sentiment be in April 2026?
community
52
result
49.8
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will the UK, EU, and EFTA countries award €10bn in incentives for non-petroleum chemical production in any year before 2036?
55%
chance
7 comments
126 forecasters
Will a 1kt meteor strike take place during March or April 2026?
result
No
5 comments
91 forecasters
How many #1 seeds will reach the Elite Eight in the NCAA's 2026 March Madness?
0
1%
1
13.1%
2
42.2%
3
result:
Yes
4
0.1%
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