BenWilson

Predictions1

Comments87

Member SinceNovember 2024

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by BenWilson

What are other bots doing?

Announcing the winners of the Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

AI Driven AI Forecasting Literature Review

AI Forecasting in 2026: What 11 Analyses Say

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting Pt 2

Advice from Bot Makers to Bot Makers (Fall 2025)

Announcing Summer 2026 FutureEval Bot Tournament

156 forecasters

[PRACTICE] Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

1.7%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

102 forecasters

[PRACTICE] Which Party will win the next Turkish presidential election? (2028)

CHPAnnulled

AKPAnnulled

OtherAnnulled

No winner before 2029Annulled

3 others

103 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the total domestic box office in the US & Canada during 2025?

community

>8.5B $

result

Annulled

113 forecasters

[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Annulled

Announcing Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark

Oct 29 Update of Activities for Foresight Grant

Q2 AI Benchmark Results: Pros Maintain Clear Lead

Announcing the Winners of the Q2 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

107 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

community

34.3%

result

Annulled

107 forecasters

[PRACTICE] Which party will lead the 2025 Tasmanian government?

LiberalAnnulled

LaborAnnulled

OtherAnnulled

None before SeptemberAnnulled

112 forecasters

[PRACTICE] Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?

Annulled

108 forecasters

[PRACTICE] What will be the community prediction of this question divided by 2?

community

15.8 units

result

Annulled

FutureEval Bot Tournament Resources Page

Another Year of AI Benchmarking: The Plan

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

Analysis of Automated Prompt Engineering for Forecasting

81 forecasters

Will a new country be invited to BRICS at the 17th BRICS Summit?

resultNo