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dougiebuckets

Predictions2

Comments28

Member SinceFebruary 2025

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by dougiebuckets

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16 forecasters

Will US undergraduate enrollment decline by more than 10% from 2024 to 2030?

60%chance

6 forecasters

When will Polymarket launch a token?

Current estimate

28 Feb 2026

Key Factors

24 forecasters

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

56%chance

11 forecasters

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance

5% this week

19 forecasters

Will there be a large-scale power outage in the Continental Europe synchronous grid affecting multiple countries before 2028?

50%chance

5% this week

2 forecasters

Which of the following California oil refineries will first announce the intent to idle, restructure, or cease operations before 2028?

Valero (Wilmington)50%

Chevron (Richmond)9%

PBF Energy (Martinez)9%

1 forecaster

Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?

9%chance

3 forecasters

Who will Trump nominate as next Fed Chair?

Judy Shelton25.9%

Larry Kudlow25.1%

Kevin Hassett18.8%

4 forecasters

What will the highest level of Bitcoin dominance be in 2025?

65% to 67.9%74%

68% to 69.9%19%

70% or higher6.8%

9 forecasters

Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?

20%chance